The pull from mills eased sharply. Canadian mills ground 9,000 tonnes of oats this week, less than half of the season high of 21,500 the week before and below every one of the past five years for this week. Milling for the crop year so far is now below four of those five years, after running about at the average a week ago. A single week can swing with plant schedules, so this week does not by itself show weaker demand from mills. 1 2
Farm sales stayed thin. Farmers delivered 28,700 tonnes to country elevators, up from 21,700 but below three of the past five years for this week. Deliveries straight to processors halved to 6,300 tonnes, below all five of those years. Counting both, farmers sold less than in four of the past five years for this week. Last week's reading was that buyers would need more farm selling or would keep running their own stocks down; this week farm sales stayed low and processor stocks fell again. 3
Processors used their own oats. Processor stocks in Saskatchewan fell by 3,600 tonnes and are now 54 per cent below average. Country elevator stocks barely moved, up 1,800 tonnes, a little less than deliveries minus shipments would imply. Elevators shipped 24,800 tonnes, below four of the past five years for this week. In tonnes country stocks are 28 per cent below average, but because shipments have been slow they still cover about the usual number of weeks. 4 3
Terminal exports were 9,900 tonnes, down from 24,000 but more than in this week of four of the past five years, and the season's total is now 6 per cent ahead of last year. That total, 78,900 tonnes, is a small part of the 2.36 million tonnes Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada expects Canada to export this crop year; most oat exports do not pass through the terminals. 5 6 7
There is no oat elevator bid series on the page beyond the provincial quotes behind the bin-to-ship prices, and those moved only a few dollars this week; no market report in the week explained oat prices. So these flows cannot be tied to a price change. If mills return to last week's pace while farm sales stay this low, processors will have to draw their stocks down further or attract more grain. If milling stays at this week's slower rate, current farm sales would be enough to meet it. 8 9 3 4