Oat shipments out of country elevators picked up to about the usual pace, drawing stocks below the usual range, while farm deliveries stayed at less than half the usual level.
- Elevators shipped oats at about the usual pace again, but farmers delivered less than half the usual amount.
- Elevator stocks fell below the usual range for the date, while mills kept grinding at their normal pace.
- Deliveries staying this low with harvest finished would point to the smaller crop or farmers holding oats back.
Oats started moving out of country elevators again. In the week to October 18, elevators shipped slightly more than the five-year average for the week, nearly four times as much as the week before. Farmers delivered only 14,100 tonnes, less than half the five-year average for a second week and below the five-year range. Country elevator stocks fell to below the five-year range for the date. Because shipments had been so slow in the weeks before, the stocks still cover more weeks of shipments than usual.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
Most of those oats did not go to port terminals. Port receipts were about average, and no oats were exported through the terminals this week. Port stocks, mostly at Thunder Bay, are 26 per cent above average and cover far more weeks of exports than usual. Terminal exports so far this crop year are 43 per cent below last year.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 2
Domestic demand held steady. Mills ground about the five-year average for the week, and their crop-year total is a little below average but inside the usual range. Farm deliveries straight to processors were also about average.Charts: Exhibit 13, Exhibit 12, Exhibit 5
Harvest timing can explain only a little of the slow farm selling. Alberta, the one province with a late harvest, reported oats 91.7 per cent harvested on October 20, below any of the past five years at that date, so only a small part of its crop is still in the field. Manitoba, where the harvest ran at its usual pace, has elevator stocks about a third below average, and Saskatchewan's harvest is ahead of average. The crop is also smaller than first expected. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October 20 outlook kept its production forecast at about 3.03 million tonnes, well below its January figure, and left ending stocks unchanged. The figures do not show how much of the slow selling is a smaller crop and how much is farmers holding oats back.Charts: Exhibit 9, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 15
There is no weekly oat price series on the page and no market report on oats for the week, so this story does not explain a price change. If deliveries stay this low once Alberta's harvest is done, the cause lies in the crop's size or in farmers' choices. A pickup in deliveries would rebuild elevator stocks toward normal.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 9
Oats covers Grain Commission flows and AAFC forecasts. No farm price, destination or USDA exhibits yet: PDQ holds only a few weeks of feed oat bids, and the customs and USDA readers are not set up for oats. Most oats leave by rail to the United States, so port terminal exports are small.