Lentil prices were mixed as farmers delivered less than half the usual amount for the week, while exports stayed slow.
- Alberta's green lentil quotes rose while its red lentil quote fell, and Saskatchewan's quotes did not change.
- Farmers are selling few lentils, but exporters are loading slowly too, so there is little export pull on elevator stocks.
- Faster export loadings would make the thin farm deliveries matter more for prices; more farm selling would refill elevators.
Lentil prices moved in different directions in the latest provincial quotes. Alberta's October 16 quotes put Eston small green lentils up C$22.04 a tonne and Laird large greens up C$11.03, while red lentils fell C$11.03, their second weekly fall. Saskatchewan's October 14 quotes were unchanged for every class. Over the past month they have changed at most every second week, so a flat week there says little. Red lentils are well above last year, several green classes are below it, and all are far below the five-year average, which includes the very high prices of earlier years. Lentils have no futures market, and these are published quotes, not elevator bids.Charts: Exhibit 8
Few lentils are coming off farms. Farmers delivered 16,500 tonnes to country elevators in the week to October 18, less than half the five-year average for the week. Country elevator stocks fell again, to below the five-year range for the date, and they cover fewer weeks of shipments than usual. Shipments out of those elevators were also well below average.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
Export demand is not pulling hard, though. Exports in the week were well below the five-year average for the week, and the four-week average is about a third below average. Port stocks rose to 60 per cent above average, though the ports received only about as much as they exported in the week, so the figures do not show where the rise came from. Port stocks were already well above average a week earlier. So there was no strong export pull to meet, and only some quotes rose. It was reported on October 15 that India had recently issued a tender for 60,000 tonnes of lentils after a weak harvest, while Canada's trade minister led a trade mission there seeking lower tariffs on pulses. The week's export figures show no new pull from that yet.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
There is no shortage of lentils in Canada. Stocks at July 31 were 1.28 million tonnes, more than double last year and about four times the five-year average, and most of them were on farms. This year's crop is about a quarter smaller than last year's but above the five-year average, and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October 20 outlook left its forecasts unchanged. So the low deliveries come from farmers holding lentils, not from a lack of them.Charts: Exhibit 14, Exhibit 13, Exhibit 17
Last week, thin deliveries came with rising quotes for half the classes. This week deliveries were thinner still, but exports slowed, and only the Alberta green quotes rose. If export loadings pick up and draw port stocks down, the thin flow from farms would matter more for prices. If farmers start selling more of their large stocks, elevator stocks would rebuild and that support would fade.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 8
All lentil classes unless an exhibit says otherwise.