Lentil exports picked up this week while country elevators sent little to the ports, and Alberta's small green quote rose for a fourth week.

Port stocks of lentils jumped last week and fell sharply this week, in both weeks by far more than the reported receipts and shipments explain. Terminal exports rose to 30,200 tonnes, close to the five-year average for the week and nearly double the week before. These are bulk terminal exports, so lentils shipped in containers are not counted. Port stocks fell by 46,000 tonnes to 69 per cent below average, below the five-year range. That is about half a week of port shipments at the recent pace, against a usual cover of more than a week.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

Exports and receipts explain only part of the drop. Terminal exports minus port receipts account for a little over a third of it. The port figures show no domestic shipments, so the other 28,000 tonnes is not explained by the reported flows. Little arrived to replace what left. Shipments out of country elevators fell to 12,500 tonnes, 74 per cent below average and below the lowest of the past five years for the week. Farmers delivered more than in the week before, but still about a third less than average. Country elevators hold about a fifth fewer lentils than usual, but so little is moving out that those stocks now cover 4.9 weeks of shipments, against a usual 3.5. The firm signal this week is in the flows: exports picked up while country elevators sent very little to the ports. The low port stock adds some support, but on its own it cannot show that the ports are short of lentils.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7

Prices moved only for some classes. Lentils have no futures market, and these are published provincial quotes, not elevator bids. A market report on October 20 said green lentil prices had risen in the week to October 19 because growers were holding back sales while buyers needed supply. In this week's quotes, Saskatchewan's October 21 figures were unchanged for every class. Alberta's Eston small green quote rose C$22.05 a tonne on October 23, its fourth weekly rise in a row, while its red and Laird quotes held. After the week the classes split. On October 28 Saskatchewan's small green quote rose while small reds fell, and Alberta's red quote fell on October 30.Charts: Exhibit 10, Exhibit 11

Canada began the crop year with about four times the five-year average in lentil stocks, most of them on farms. Low farm deliveries come from farmers holding lentils, not from a lack of them. India remains the main buyer, taking more than half of September's licensed-elevator exports. Canada and the United Arab Emirates signed a trade agreement on October 30 that will remove the UAE's 5 per cent tariff on lentils once it is in force.Charts: Exhibit 16, Exhibit 8

For the season, terminal exports are still 15 per cent behind last year, though slightly above the five-year average. Last week's story said faster loadings that drew port stocks down would make thin farm deliveries matter more. Loadings did pick up, but the near-term need can be met from country elevators first. If loadings stay near this week's pace, elevators hold enough to refill the ports for a while, and farm sales would matter once those stocks are drawn down. If farmers start selling more of their large stocks, the pull on country lentils would ease.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7