Saskatchewan lentil quotes rose for three of five classes as farm deliveries stayed below average, despite very large stocks on farms.
- Large green lentils gained the most, while Alberta's quotes were steady to mixed.
- Farmers are delivering fewer lentils than usual, so elevator stocks have fallen below the usual range even though farm stocks are large.
- More farm selling at these prices would ease the pull, and so would slower export loadings.
Lentil prices kept rising for most Saskatchewan classes in the latest provincial quotes. Saskatchewan's quote of October 7 put small red lentils at C$570.12 a tonne, up C$16.76 from the week before, and large green lentils up C$49.82. Small greens rose too, while medium and French greens were unchanged. Alberta's October 9 quotes were steady to mixed: small green Eston up, Laird unchanged and red slightly lower. Small reds in Saskatchewan are about 16 per cent above last year, though well below the five-year average, which includes the very high prices of earlier years. Lentils have no futures market, and these are published quotes, not elevator bids.Charts: Exhibit 8
The handling figures show few lentils coming off farms. In the week ended October 11, farm deliveries were 27,600 tonnes, 29 per cent below the five-year average for the week, and they have been below average every week for the past month as the harvest finished. Elevators shipped out more than they took in, so country elevator stocks fell to 134,400 tonnes, below the range of the past five years for the date. Because shipments have also been slow, those stocks still cover close to the usual number of weeks at the recent pace. For buyers trying to fill sales, a thin flow of deliveries is the setting in which quoted prices rise.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
There is no shortage of lentils in Canada. Stocks at July 31 were 1.28 million tonnes, more than double last year and about four times the five-year average, and most of them were on farms. This year's crop is a quarter smaller than last year's but still above the five-year average. The question is when farmers choose to sell, not whether the lentils exist.Charts: Exhibit 14, Exhibit 13
Exports do not point to a rush either. In the week ended October 11, exports were 20,600 tonnes, below the five-year average for the week, and the crop-year total of 264,500 tonnes was close to the five-year average and slightly behind last year. Port terminals received less than half the usual volume from country elevators that week, and port stocks were well above average for the date. Statistics Canada figures reported on 6 October showed India was the largest buyer of Canadian lentils in August. If farmers start delivering more at current prices, elevator stocks would rebuild and the pull on prices would ease; slower export loadings would have the same effect.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 1, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
All lentil classes unless an exhibit says otherwise.