Yellow pea bids rose again as fast shipments to port drew elevator stocks below their usual range, though peas on farms are plentiful.

Yellow pea bids kept climbing in the week of October 5 to 9. The median regional bid for No. 2 yellow peas rose C$15.33 to C$333.95 a tonne, and every region quoting a bid moved up. Over four weeks the bid has gained C$35.61, close to the largest rise for the same weeks in any of the past five years. The bid is about 35 per cent above last year at this point but still below the five-year average. Peas have no futures market, and no market report for the week explained the move, so this is a change in the cash market with no outside price to tie it to.Charts: Exhibit 11, Exhibit 9, Exhibit 12

The handling figures point to exports pulling peas out of country elevators faster than farmers refill them. The Grain Commission figures cover all pea classes, not only yellow. Exports reached 138,600 tonnes in the week ended October 11, more than double the five-year average for the week, and 924,800 tonnes for the crop year, above the highest of the past five years at that date. In the same week, shipments out of country elevators were about the usual tonnage for the week, while port terminals received more than in any of the past five years. Farm deliveries were slightly above average for the week. They have fallen since September, as they usually do once harvest is done, but they have not kept up with shipments. Statistics Canada figures reported on 6 October showed China took about three-quarters of August pea exports.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 1, Exhibit 5

As a result, country elevator stocks fell to 226,200 tonnes on October 11, below the range of the past five years for the date. At the recent shipping pace they cover about two weeks of shipments, against a usual of nearly four. The tightness is in the elevator system, not in the country. Canada started the crop year on July 31 with 1.18 million tonnes of peas in stock, more than double last year and the five-year average, and most of it on farms. This year's crop is smaller than last year's but above the five-year average, and the official forecast of stocks at the end of the year was raised in September to 1.11 million tonnes. Peas are available; to refill elevators while exports run this fast, buyers have to reach the price at which farmers will sell.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 20, Exhibit 19, Exhibit 25

Buyers want peas now rather than later. In every region, bids for November and December delivery pay less than the spot bid once interest is counted, so storing peas into the winter is not being rewarded at current bids. If farmers deliver more at these prices and elevator stocks rebuild, or if export loadings slow, buyers would have less reason to keep lifting the spot bid.Charts: Exhibit 28