Canola futures ended the week flat, but spot bids edged up as basis kept narrowing while crushers and the movement to port both drew heavily on country grain.
- Basis has now narrowed for four weeks running, and is about where it was a year ago.
- The futures crush margin is wide, and grain reached the ports faster than ships loaded it.
- Faster export loadings or a smaller crush margin would change how much room bids have to keep improving.
Canola futures ended the week of October 5 to 9 almost where they started. The November contract settled at C$816.70 a tonne on Friday, up C$1.20 from the week before, after a sharp drop on Wednesday and a partial recovery on Thursday. Market reports tied Wednesday's fall to weaker vegetable oils in Chicago, Europe and Malaysia and to fund selling, with a weaker Canadian dollar softening the loss. They tied Thursday's gain to firmer vegetable oils, on a day when crude oil jumped. No report explained Monday or Tuesday on their own.Charts: Exhibit 20
Spot cash bids did a little better than futures. The median regional bid rose C$3.90, so basis narrowed by C$2.70 a tonne. That is the fourth straight week of narrowing after basis widened through the early harvest, and the four-week narrowing is larger than usual for these weeks, though within the range of the past five years. Basis is about level with last year's for the week; in the past five years only 2024-25 was wider, while the three years before that were narrower. Basis narrowed in seven of nine regions; it was unchanged in southeast Saskatchewan and slightly wider in east Manitoba.Charts: Exhibit 20, Exhibit 17, Exhibit 21
The Grain Commission's figures for the week ended October 11 show two buyers drawing on country grain at once. Farm deliveries straight to processors were 31 per cent above the five-year average for the week, and the crop-year crush total was the largest for the date in the six years shown. The futures crush margin rose to C$296.55 a tonne on October 9, the highest for the date in the six years shown and about C$50 above the next highest, which gives plants a reason to keep seed coming in. At the same time, port terminals received 324,600 tonnes of canola from country elevators, more than in all but one of the past five years for the week, the second heavy week in a row. Stronger buyer demand for deliveries is what a narrowing basis reflects, and this week it came from both sides.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 27, Exhibit 32
Ships did not keep up. Exports in the week were 28 per cent below the five-year average and about half of what port terminals received from the country. Port stocks rose by about half that difference, to a level rated above usual for the time of year; the figures do not show where the rest went. Country elevator stocks rose too, as heavy farm deliveries continued, and they are now near usual after starting the harvest far below average. That makes the crush the steadier source of support: with grain reaching port at twice the pace ships loaded it, exporters need less new grain until loadings pick up. The season's export total is still well ahead of last year and of the usual seasonal path to the official forecast, so this was one slow week, not a stall.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 10, Exhibit 2, Exhibit 1
For canola in the bin, waiting pays little. February delivery offers the best gain in every region, but April delivery beats the spot bid by only C$0.15 to C$8.70 a tonne after interest, before any storage cost, because interest takes up most of the futures carry. If loadings pick up and draw port stocks down, exporters would need more country grain, which would give basis more room to keep narrowing. A smaller crush margin would weaken the incentive behind the steady crush demand.Charts: Exhibit 61, Exhibit 68
Manitoba processor stocks are shown as n/a: the Grain Commission has published only zero readings for them since late May 2026.