Barley processing is running above the usual range and elevators drew their stocks down, but exports fell back and port stocks rose.
- Domestic processing of barley is running above the past five years, while exports swing from week to week.
- Elevators shipped more barley than farmers delivered, but part of it waited at port as exports fell back.
- Faster export loadings would bring stocks down, and more farm deliveries with slow exports would build them again.
Domestic demand for barley is strong, and exports are uneven. Barley processed in Canada so far this crop year reached 146,200 tonnes by October 11, just above the five-year range for the date. Exports swing from week to week: 167,300 tonnes in the week ended October 4, the largest week of this crop year, then 62,200 tonnes in the week ended October 11, about 45 per cent below the five-year average for the week. The crop-year total of 595,100 tonnes is above the five-year average but behind last year's pace.Charts: Exhibit 12, Exhibit 3, Exhibit 2, Exhibit 1
The crop is large enough that this demand has only started to draw the elevators down. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada raised its production forecast in September to 9.7 million tonnes and lifted its export and ending stocks forecasts with it. Country elevator stocks, which had held steady through September, fell 63,000 tonnes in the week ended October 11, as shipments out of them recovered to about the five-year average while farm deliveries fell well below average. Even so, country stocks were still above the five-year range for the date and covered more weeks of shipments than usual. Harvest was close to normal in Saskatchewan, slightly behind in Manitoba and further behind in Alberta, at 90.5 per cent on October 6.Charts: Exhibit 15, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 9
Part of that grain stopped at port. Port terminals received about the usual amount of barley for the week but exported only about half of what they received. Port stocks rose 35,000 tonnes, a little over half of that difference, and now cover more weeks of shipments than usual.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
There is no weekly farm-price series for barley on the page, so this story does not explain a price change. It was reported on 14 October that feed barley traded at C$290 to C$295 a tonne at Lethbridge. The official September outlook raised its forecast of the average barley price for the year by C$10 to C$305 a tonne.Charts: Exhibit 15
The balance turns on export loadings. If they pick up again, both port and country stocks would come down toward usual levels. If farm deliveries pick up while exports stay slow, those stocks would build again.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 2
Barley covers Grain Commission flows and AAFC forecasts. No farm price, destination or USDA exhibits yet: PDQ holds only a few weeks of feed barley bids, and the customs and USDA readers are not set up for barley.