Yellow pea bids edged up in every region as exports and country shipments more than doubled, even though farmers again delivered more than in any of the past five years for this week.
- The median yellow pea bid rose about C$2.50 a tonne after last week's dip.
- Elevators shipped peas out faster than farmers brought them in, after two weeks the other way round.
- If loadings slow again while deliveries stay this heavy, this week's support could fade.
The median regional bid for No. 2 yellow peas rose C$2.56 to C$337.75 a tonne, and all eight quoting regions gained. That recovers almost all of last week's dip. The bid is well above last year at this point but below the other four of the past five years. Peas have no futures market and no exhibit tracks the export price, so the flows are the only evidence on the move, and they fit it.Charts: Exhibit 13, Exhibit 14, Exhibit 5
The pull from export channels came back. Terminal exports more than doubled to 57,100 tonnes, level with the highest of the past five years for this week. Country elevators shipped 100,900 tonnes, more than double the week before and more than in this week of any of the past five years. Last week's reading was that faster loadings would renew the pull on country peas, and that is what happened.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5
Farmers kept selling hard. They delivered 71,600 tonnes, a second week above every one of the past five years for this week. Even so, elevators shipped more than they took in, and country stocks fell by 28,000 tonnes to a little below average. That gap between shipments and deliveries explains the whole draw. Bids rose in a week of heavy farm selling, and the flows fit that: elevators were moving peas out faster still. These flows cover all pea classes, not only yellow peas.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
Port stocks fell another 23,000 tonnes, to the lowest for this week in six years. Port outflow minus port receipts explains only about half of that drop; the rest is unexplained. The low level alone does not show that terminals are short of peas.Charts: Exhibit 6, Exhibit 7
China and India took most of the season's early exports from licensed facilities, with China ahead over August and September and India the larger buyer in September. Canada's trade minister said on 4 November, after the week, that China's lower tariff on Canadian peas will now run to the end of 2028 rather than end in December 2026. That removes a date that hung over the China trade, though it did not affect this week's flows.Charts: Exhibit 8
Buyers still pay nothing for waiting. December is the only later month quoted, and after interest it pays less than spot in every region. This week's gain came as elevators moved peas out quickly. If loadings slow again while farmers keep delivering at this rate, this week's support could fade.Charts: Exhibit 34, Exhibit 5
Farm cash price exhibits (section 10, 19) are yellow peas. Grain Commission, AAFC and elevator figures cover all dry peas: those sources do not split yellow and green.