Durum bids held close to last week's lower level while exports slowed to a normal pace and stocks kept falling at both the ports and country elevators.
- The median spot bid slipped about C$1 a tonne after last week's sharp drop.
- Exporters kept drawing on a system that holds less durum than usual.
- Stronger overseas buying, or exporters needing more farm grain to keep their pace, would give bids support.
After last week's C$13 drop, durum bids barely moved. The median regional spot bid for No. 1 CWAD slipped C$1.44 to C$300.95 a tonne, and all five regions that quote durum slipped only slightly. Bids are still a little above last year at this point and below the other four of the past five years. Durum has no futures market, and no market report found for the week explained the level of bids.Charts: Exhibit 18, Exhibit 19
Exports came back to a normal week after last week's surge. Terminal exports were 78,300 tonnes, in the middle of the past five years for this week. The season's total is still 45 per cent ahead of last year. The pace of the last four weeks, though, is a little below what is needed to reach Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October forecast of 5.3 million tonnes, which it had raised that month.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 33
The handling system keeps running down. Port stocks fell another 33,000 tonnes, to 25 per cent below average, and the excess of port outflow over port receipts explains most of that fall. Country elevators shipped a little more than farmers delivered, and their stocks fell to 23 per cent below average, lower than in this week of any of the past five years. Both the port and country stock tables rate them below usual. Farm deliveries recovered slightly but were below three of the past five years for this week.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 10
So for a second week, tight Canadian stocks did not lift bids. Last week bids fell in the season's biggest export week so far. This week they held while stocks fell again. Durum bids follow what exporters can sell durum for abroad, and none of the exhibits tracks that price. A USDA attaché report released on 4 November expects Canada's durum exports to fall this year on weaker demand from North Africa after good crops in Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia. That is one official view of the year ahead, not a measure of this week's trade.Charts: Exhibit 18, Exhibit 7
Buyers offer almost nothing for waiting. After interest, December delivery pays less than spot in every region that quotes it, and the best month, February, gains at most about C$3 a tonne before storage. If exporters need more grain to keep the season's pace, the low stocks give buyers a reason to compete for farm deliveries. If overseas demand softens, bids can stay flat even while the elevator system runs short.Charts: Exhibit 53