Heavy farm deliveries kept building soybean stocks at country elevators while Manitoba's quote fell again, and exports rose to about the usual pace, with most port shipments leaving eastern terminals.
- Farmers delivered more soybeans than in this week of any recent year.
- Elevators shipped more too, but not enough to stop their stocks rising.
- Faster shipments from western elevators would work the extra stocks down; if they stay below deliveries, stocks keep building.
Manitoba's soybean quote fell C$8.08 to C$573.21 a tonne, its third weekly drop in a row. It is still about a quarter above last year at this point and above three of the past five years. Chicago soybean futures, which are not shown on the page, fell on four of the five trading days. Daily reports tied those losses to US harvest pressure, fund selling, weaker soyoil and a sharp fall in the Brazilian real, which makes Brazilian soybeans cheaper. Those reports cover a different market from the Manitoba quote, so they are background, not the measured cause of its fall.Charts: Exhibit 8
The farm side kept growing. Farmers delivered 130,900 tonnes to country elevators, more than in this week of any of the past five years. Manitoba's harvest was 95 per cent done in its report of 27 October, ahead of its five-year average, so these are sales from a crop that is now in the bin. Elevators shipped 99,800 tonnes, more than in four of the past five years, yet their stocks rose by another 32,000 tonnes, which the gap between deliveries and shipments explains. Country stocks have risen every week since mid-September. They are 24 per cent above average and cover more weeks of shipments than usual, though they are still below the same week of the last two years.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 10
Exports are catching up. Terminals shipped 288,900 tonnes, the fifth weekly rise in a row and about the five-year average for this week, in the middle of the past five years. For the season, terminal exports are still 20 per cent behind last year but now slightly above the five-year average. Almost all of this week's port outflow left from the Bay & Lakes and St. Lawrence terminals; Vancouver and Thunder Bay together moved about 30,000 tonnes. So the national export pace says little about how fast Prairie country stocks can clear.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 6
Port stocks fell by 63,000 tonnes, mostly at the Bay & Lakes terminals, to 9 per cent below average. Port outflow ran far ahead of receipts from western country elevators, so on those flows alone stocks should have fallen much more. The reported western flows do not explain the port figures this week.Charts: Exhibit 6, Exhibit 7
The pattern of recent weeks holds: deliveries are running ahead of what elevators ship. With the Manitoba crop mostly harvested, the pace of deliveries now rests on farmers' selling choices rather than on field progress. Deliveries rose this week even as the quote fell. If western elevator shipments pick up, elevators can work the extra stocks down. If they stay below deliveries, stocks will keep building in the country.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 8
Soybeans covers Grain Commission flows, AAFC forecasts, harvest progress and the Manitoba cash price (Manitoba is the only Prairie province that publishes one). AAFC's export forecast covers all of Canada; most soybeans ship from Eastern Canada, so Grain Commission terminal figures cover only part of them.