Yellow pea bids slipped after three weeks of gains as farmers delivered twice the usual amount and exports slowed.

The median regional bid for No. 2 yellow peas fell C$2.69 to C$335.19 a tonne, and all eight quoting regions slipped by between about C$2 and C$4. That ends three weeks of rises. The bid is still about a third above last year at this point but below the five-year average. Peas have no futures market, so the weekly move has to be read from the Canadian flows and from what buyers abroad were paying.Charts: Exhibit 13, Exhibit 14

The flows turned. Farmers delivered 70,400 tonnes of peas to country elevators, more than twice the five-year average for the week and above the top of the five-year range. Shipments out of the country stayed near average, so country stocks rose by 26,000 tonnes to about average. Exports, meanwhile, fell to 24,500 tonnes, the smallest weekly total since August, though two of the past five years shipped less in this week. Last week's reading was that more farm selling or slower loadings would ease the pull on bids. Both happened, and bids eased, though only a little. These figures cover all pea classes, not only yellow peas.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 2

Port stocks fell another 18,000 tonnes, to the lowest for this week in six years, though not far below 2021-22 and 2025-26. The reported flows do not explain that fall: port receipts were larger than exports and domestic shipments together, so stocks should have risen. A low port stock on its own does not show that terminals are short of peas, and it did not lift bids this week, when terminal loadings slowed and farmers delivered heavily.Charts: Exhibit 7, Exhibit 5

Trade reports on October 26 and 27 said a Ukrainian yellow pea quote held steady, Canadian cargoes were arriving in India, and Indian mills were drawing on their own stocks rather than buying heavily. India took more Canadian peas than any other buyer in September, ahead of China, so its pace matters. For the season, terminal exports are 27 per cent ahead of last year and above every one of the past five years at this point.Charts: Exhibit 8, Exhibit 2

Supply is not the constraint. Canada started the crop year with more than twice last year's pea stocks, most of them on farms, and this week's deliveries show farmers will sell at these prices. Alberta's large yellow pea quote, flat through the week, rose about C$25 a tonne on October 30, after the week ended. Deferred bids still pay less than spot once interest is counted, so storing peas into winter is not being rewarded. A return to faster terminal loadings would renew the pull on country peas, while another week of heavy deliveries would hold bids back.Charts: Exhibit 22, Exhibit 16, Exhibit 34