Farm oat sales recovered to about the usual weekly amount, with more going straight to processors than in any recent year, and terminal exports resumed after two empty weeks.
- Farmers sold more oats this week, much of it straight to processors.
- Mills are buying steadily, and terminal exports restarted after two empty weeks.
- A return to very low deliveries would show farmers holding oats back from a smaller crop.
Farm selling picked up after two very slow weeks. Farmers delivered 25,700 tonnes to country elevators, nearly twice the week before, though still 17 per cent below the five-year average for the week. They also delivered 14,500 tonnes straight to processors, more than in any of the past five years for this week. Taken together, farmers sold close to the usual amount for the week. Last week's question was whether low deliveries reflected a smaller crop or farmers holding oats back. This week's sales show farmers are willing to sell, at least to processors.Charts: Exhibit 5
Processors are the steady buyers. Mills have ground about the five-year average so far this crop year, and Saskatchewan and Manitoba processors added to their own stocks this week. Country elevators shipped about as much as in most of the past five years for this week, and their stocks were steady. Those stocks are about a quarter below average in tonnes, but shipments have been slow enough that they cover more weeks than usual, so elevators are not short.Charts: Exhibit 15, Exhibit 7, Exhibit 5
Exports restarted in a small way. Terminals shipped 9,300 tonnes after two weeks with none, and port receipts from the country were higher than in any of the past five years for the week. Port stocks, mostly at Thunder Bay, still fell back to about average, even though receipts were larger than exports and other shipments from the ports together, so the reported flows do not explain that fall. For the season, terminal exports are 28 per cent behind last year and about half the five-year average, so export demand is not the main draw on Canadian oats.Charts: Exhibit 2, Exhibit 5, Exhibit 7
The crop is nearly in. Saskatchewan's oat harvest is ahead of its five-year average, and its latest yield estimate rose by 3 bushels an acre. Alberta is still behind every one of the past five years, with a small share of its crop left to combine. There is no oat price on the page. A trade report on October 23 said Chicago oat futures had drifted lower with corn and wheat rather than on news about oats, and that Chicago oat prices were drawing farmer selling but not strong end-user buying in the US market.Charts: Exhibit 9, Exhibit 14
If farm sales hold near this week's level, processors and the small export trade can be supplied without drawing elevator stocks lower. If deliveries fall back to the levels of mid-October once Alberta's harvest is done, that would point to farmers holding oats from a crop the official outlook has cut well below its January forecast.Charts: Exhibit 5, Exhibit 9, Exhibit 18
Oats covers Grain Commission flows and AAFC forecasts. No farm price, destination or USDA exhibits yet: PDQ holds only a few weeks of feed oat bids, and the customs and USDA readers are not set up for oats. Most oats leave by rail to the United States, so port terminal exports are small.