The January canola contract, which became the futures benchmark on 2 November, closed the week at C$752.20 a tonne on Friday, C$77.60 below four weeks earlier. Market reports tied this week's losses, from Tuesday to Friday, to funds selling long positions and to chart-based selling, along with weaker crude oil, soybean oil, European rapeseed and palm oil. None of the daily reports linked it to the trade news of the week. Canada said on 4 November that China had extended the lower tariffs on Canadian canola meal and peas to the end of 2028, but the extension does not cover canola seed or oil. 1 2
Spot bids followed futures down. The median regional spot bid fell C$33.53 to C$691.28 a tonne on Friday. The weekly basis chart shows basis C$9.63 wider, at minus C$60.92, but last week's figure was measured against the November contract and this week's against the higher-priced January contract. On the January contract alone, Friday's basis was C$7.93 narrower than four weeks earlier. So the futures drop has passed almost fully into farm bids without basis widening. 3 2 4 1
The products lost value along with the seed. Oil and meal fell by a little more than the seed, so the board crush margin slipped C$5.22 on the same contract, to C$254.72 a tonne on Friday. Alberta crusher meal prices fell again, as they have every week since mid-September. The margin is still wider than a year ago. Crushing slowed from the week before but stayed in the middle of the past five years for this week. A wide margin keeps crushers buying, but it gave seed bids no cushion when oil, meal and seed fell together. 5 6 7
Demand for Prairie canola did not weaken. Terminal exports were the most in any week this crop year and more than in this week of any of the past five years. Country elevators shipped more than in this week of any of those years, about 84,000 tonnes more than farmers delivered, and that gap accounts for the whole drop in their stocks. Those stocks are below four of the past five years for this week and cover fewer weeks of shipments than usual. The fall in bids came from futures, not from a weaker pull on farm deliveries. 8 9 10
The market is still paying more than usual to store canola, as it was last week. On Friday the May bid paid C$4.43 to C$11.01 a tonne more than spot after interest, before storage costs. In every region that is more than at this point in any of the past five years. Most of it comes from the futures carry, with July futures C$25.10 above January, while basis for May delivery was close to spot basis in every region. Strong exports and a fast country draw keep buyers needing farm deliveries, which would support basis. Further weakness in vegetable oils would keep pressing on futures and on the crush margin. 11 12 13