Storage break-even
Pick a crop and region. The page shows the break-even: the storage and other holding cost, per tonne per month, at which the gain from a later delivery month, after interest, is zero compared with delivering now. Enter your own storage cost to see the gain after it. It uses this week's bids, the same week in earlier years (up to five), and the past range next to this week's later bids. It is arithmetic and names no action. Updated every week. The bids shown are PDQ's of .
Now: this week's break-even by delivery month
C$ per tonne per month. At a storage cost below a bar, the gain after storage for that delivery month is above zero; above the bar, it is below zero. A bar left of the line means the gain after interest is below zero before any storage cost. The dashed line is your storage cost, if you entered one.
| Delivery month | Bid for that month | Over bid now | Interest at your rate | Break-even at your rate | Break-even at prime + 1 | Gain vs delivering now, after your storage cost |
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Break-even a month = (bid for that month − bid for delivery now − interest) ÷ months held. Interest = bid for delivery now × rate × months held ÷ 12. Gain after your storage cost = that gain − your storage cost × months held, in C$ per tonne. Months held are whole calendar months from the bid month to the delivery month, the way Markets Lab's weekly pages count them. A bid for a later month is a forward contract: the offer at that date.
The past: the same week in earlier years
Past range for this week
C$ per tonne per month, at your interest rate. Each delivery month has two lines. Upper line: forward contracts, meaning the offer for delivery the same number of months ahead in the same week of past years, with this week's offer as the diamond. Lower line: unpriced, meaning the later cash bid, what the same grain sold for that many months later in past years. Past years are matched by months held from their own bid dates, so a past year's delivery month can differ from this week's when its bid date fell in a different calendar month. Each band runs from the lowest to the highest past year, with the average marked.
What this leaves out
- Price risk. A forward contract fixes the price of a delivery month. Unpriced grain sells at the cash bid of the day, which can be higher or lower than any bid shown here. The past range is history, not a limit on what can happen.
- Quality. Bids are for the base grade (). Grade change, drying and shrink are not counted; they belong in your own storage cost.
- Contract terms. Delivery windows, payment timing and penalties are not counted.
- Getting it there. Trucking and elevator or rail access are not counted.
Bids are posted elevator bids from PDQ (Price and Data Quotes), not transaction prices. Region names are PDQ's. The default rate is the Bank of Canada prime rate () plus 1 point, the rate Markets Lab's weekly crop pages use. Bids change every day; this page holds one day's bids (, week ending ) and the same crop week of earlier years.