December spring wheat futures ended the week at C$319.43 a tonne on Friday, almost exactly where they started. The US-dollar price fell about 1 per cent, and the Canadian dollar weakened by about as much, so in Canadian dollars the two nearly cancelled. No market report explained Minneapolis spring wheat on its own. Reports on Chicago wheat tied the week's losses to hopes for Russia-Ukraine talks and freer Black Sea shipping, and Friday's drop to weak US export demand, while continued disruption of Black Sea shipments gave some support. 1 2
CWRS bids held as well. The median regional spot bid was C$294.23 a tonne on Friday, against C$293.58 a week earlier. Basis on Friday was minus C$25.20, close to where it has held for three weeks. That is narrower than in this week of any of the past five years, though last year's was only about C$1 wider and three other years were within about C$5. 1 3 2
What changed is the farm side. Farmers delivered 590,900 tonnes to country elevators, a third more than the week before and more than in this week of four of the past five years. Last week's reading was that heavier deliveries would test the elevator pull behind the narrow basis. They did not weaken it this week, because elevators shipped even more, more than in this week of any of the past five years. Country stocks fell for a fifth straight week, by 70,000 tonnes, and the gap between shipments and deliveries explains that fall. The draw was all in Alberta, where stocks fell 117,000 tonnes, while Saskatchewan's rose. 4 5
The wheat reached port faster than it left. Port receipts were higher than in this week of any of the past five years, and terminal exports rose to 458,100 tonnes, below three of those years. Receipts exceeded all port outflow by about 47,000 tonnes, but port stocks rose only 24,000; the difference is unexplained. Port stocks are 10 per cent above average in tonnes, yet at the recent pace of outflow they cover about the usual number of weeks. The four-week export average is below the 441,300 tonnes a week needed to reach the October forecast, although the season's total is still 10 per cent ahead of last year. 4 6 5 7
The market still pays for wheat now rather than later. Futures for July stood C$18.29 above December on Friday, but bids for May delivery carried a basis C$8 to C$16 wider than spot. After interest, May pays less than spot in seven of the eight regions that quote it, and only East Manitoba shows a small gain. If exports stay below the forecast pace while port stocks build, terminals would need less grain from the country, and the case for this narrow spot basis would weaken. 8 9