Manitoba's soybean quote fell C$19.48 to C$553.73 a tonne on 6 November, its fourth weekly drop in a row and the largest of the four. It is still above three of the past five years at this point, but below 2022-23 and 2023-24. Chicago soybean futures, which are not shown on the page, fell through most of the week. Market reports tied that to US harvest pressure, a private forecast of a larger US yield and sharp falls in crude oil, with a small recovery on Friday. Those reports cover a different market from the Manitoba quote, so they are background, not the measured cause of its fall. 1
The country flows turned. Farmers delivered 102,400 tonnes to country elevators, down from 130,900 and above four of the past five years for this week. Elevators shipped 129,200 tonnes, more than in this week of four of those years. Country stocks fell by 26,000 tonnes, which the gap between shipments and deliveries explains, the first weekly fall since the harvest build-up began in September. They are 21 per cent above average in tonnes, but at the recent pace of shipments they cover about the usual number of weeks. Last week's reading was that faster shipments from western elevators would work the extra stocks down; this week they started to. 2 3
Exports slowed. Terminals shipped 224,000 tonnes, down from 288,900, level with last year and below the other four of the past five years for this week. For the season, terminal exports are 14 per cent behind last year and now slightly below the five-year average. Most of this week's port outflow again left from the Bay & Lakes and St. Lawrence terminals. 4 5
The port figures do not add up from western flows. Port outflow was about 230,000 tonnes more than receipts from western country elevators, yet port stocks rose 23,000 tonnes; Vancouver stocks rose 41,000 while the St. Lawrence fell. The flows on the page explain none of that change, so it is unexplained and says nothing on its own about demand at the ports or western supply. 5 3
Deliveries eased this week as the quote fell. If elevators keep shipping more than they take in, they can work the remaining extra stocks down. If farm selling picks up again faster than shipments, stocks would start building in the country again. 2 1