Terminal durum exports were zero this week, the first week without any this crop year, after 78,300 tonnes the week before. In each of the past five years some durum left in this week. The season's total is still 31 per cent ahead of last year. The pace of the last four weeks, though, is below what is needed to reach Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's October forecast of 5.3 million tonnes. 1 2 3 4
With nothing loading, the handling system filled up. Port receipts ran about 22,000 tonnes ahead of all port outflow, which explains most of the 25,000-tonne rise in port stocks. Farmers delivered 122,800 tonnes to country elevators, up from 90,000 the week before, while elevators shipped only 67,700, less than in this week of four of the past five years. Country stocks rose by 55,000 tonnes, which that gap explains, and the whole rise was in Saskatchewan. Last week both port and country stocks were falling; this week both rose. 3 5
Stocks are still lower than usual in tonnes, 15 per cent below average at country elevators and 27 per cent at the ports. But with shipments slowing, country stocks now cover more weeks than usual, and the logistics table rates both near usual. So the tight supply in the system that stood out last week has eased for now. 5 6
Bids drifted lower. The median regional spot bid fell C$3.89 to C$297.06 a tonne on Friday, and all five quoting regions fell by C$2.60 to C$6.30 over the week. Durum has no futures market, and no market report in the week explained the bids. The flows fit a softer bid: buyers had less grain to move to ships and more arriving from farms. They do not show the cause, because durum bids follow what exporters can sell durum for abroad, and none of the exhibits tracks that price. 7 8 9
Buyers offer little for waiting. On Friday, February delivery paid C$2.91 to C$5.51 a tonne more than spot after interest in four of the five regions that quote it, before storage, while December paid less than spot everywhere. If vessels return to load durum soon, elevators will need to draw down what they took in this week, and if stocks fall back below usual cover, buyers would again need to compete for farm deliveries. If loadings stay slow while farmers keep delivering, stocks would keep rebuilding and bids would have less support. 9 3