Prairie crop markets this week
Canola
Canola futures fell C$20 a tonne this week and spot bids fell less, so basis narrowed in every region while elevators shipped more than farmers delivered.
- Basis narrowed by about C$6 a tonne and is now level with last year.
- Elevators shipped more canola than they took in, and the crush held at a normal pace while Saskatchewan crushers used up their own stocks.
- A new wave of deliveries as the last canola comes off, or a slower crush, would remove that support.
CWRS wheat
Spring wheat futures fell C$22 a tonne this week, but CWRS bids fell only C$7 as basis narrowed again while country elevators shipped more wheat than farmers delivered.
- Futures dropped sharply, but cash bids gave up only about a third as much.
- Country elevators shipped more wheat than farmers delivered, so elevators need wheat; port stocks also fell, for reasons the reported flows only partly explain.
- More farm deliveries, or slower shipments from country elevators, would take away the reason for the basis to stay this narrow.
Durum
Durum bids fell about C$13 a tonne this week, and fell in every region, even though exports had their biggest week of the season and stocks fell at both ports and country elevators.
- Durum bids gave back most of their early-October rise.
- Canadian exports and stocks pointed to more demand, not less, so the fall came from something the weekly Canadian figures do not show.
- Exports staying this fast while farm deliveries stay low would give buyers a reason to firm bids again.
Yellow peas
Yellow pea bids slipped after three weeks of gains as farmers delivered twice the usual amount and exports slowed.
- Pea bids eased by under C$3 a tonne, the first fall in four weeks.
- Farmers sold far more peas than usual while loadings slowed, so country elevator stocks rose back to about average.
- Faster terminal loadings would bring back the need for farm peas, and more heavy delivery weeks would keep bids in check.
Lentils
Lentil exports picked up this week while country elevators sent little to the ports, and Alberta's small green quote rose for a fourth week.
- Port stocks of lentils fell to about half a week of port shipments.
- Exports picked up while country elevators sent little to the ports, and most of the fall in port stocks is not explained.
- Faster shipments from country elevators, which hold more weeks of supply than usual, would refill the ports.
Chickpeas
Chickpea quotes held through the week, then rose on October 28 for the first time since late September, while more chickpeas moved through elevators than in any recent year for the week.
- Saskatchewan's chickpea quotes stayed flat during the week and rose a few days after it.
- Farmers delivered more chickpeas to elevators than usual for this time of year, though the volumes are small.
- Whether the higher quote holds while farmers sell a large crop will show how much buyers abroad want Canadian chickpeas.
Barley
Barley exports rose and less grain arrived from the country this week, and port stocks fell by far more than those flows explain.
- The ports now hold barley for about half the usual number of weeks of shipments.
- Exports ran above average and less barley arrived from the country, but most of the drop in port stocks is not explained.
- Exports staying this strong would draw down country elevators, since farmers are delivering less than usual.
Oats
Farm oat sales recovered to about the usual weekly amount, with more going straight to processors than in any recent year, and terminal exports resumed after two empty weeks.
- Farmers sold more oats this week, much of it straight to processors.
- Mills are buying steadily, and terminal exports restarted after two empty weeks.
- A return to very low deliveries would show farmers holding oats back from a smaller crop.
Soybeans
Soybean exports picked up to about their usual pace for the week, while heavier farm deliveries began to build stocks at country elevators as the Manitoba harvest caught up.
- Manitoba's soybean price eased slightly for a second week.
- Ships loaded more soybeans than the week before, but farmers delivered faster than elevators shipped, so country stocks grew.
- Loadings slowing while farmers finish harvest would let stocks build further.